JP Morgan predicts a 30% drop in the US market due to a recession
The head of one of the largest banks in the world, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, said that in a severe recession, the US stock market will fall by another 20-30%, writes Bloomberg. Interest rates in the US are likely to rise more than previously thought, the head of JPMorgan said. The Fed will have to raise rates above the range of 4% to 4.5% expected by many economists as inflation accelerates to a multi-decade high, he explained.
The US economy, according to Dimon, is unlikely to have a soft landing.
“I don’t know if this could be a soft landing for the economy. I don’t think so, but it’s possible,” the head of JPMorgan said at an industry conference in Washington.
The S&P500 is down about 23% since the start of the year. “In a severe recession, we can expect the US stock market to fall another 20-30%,” Dimon predicts.
In September, US core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) jumped to a 40-year high of 6.6% year-over-year. The value turned out to be much higher than in August, when the index reached 6.3%. The indicator exceeded market expectations. At the same time, the general consumer price index in the US (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 8.2%, which is also higher than expected.
US inflation remains high despite five Fed rate hikes this year, including three consecutive 75bp hikes. To keep prices down, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a total of 300 bp this year. — up to 3-3.25%, which is the highest rate since 2008. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for November 1-2.